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Sunday, November 23, 2008
Ain't no foolin around
11/23/08 11:30 am
High pressure is to dominate our weather for the next two days. This will translate into sunny/ partly cloudy skies and temps a few degrees above normal.
Looks like we are finally going to get some weather up in here. Tuesday a cutoff low will pinch off from the main flow and drift down the CA coast. Current guidance shows this low coming ashore South Central/ Southern CA. The bulk of the energy will slide south with the low, so Tahoe will only see light snowfall accumulations on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Snow levels look to be 5500-6000' at their lowest. Just as of note, there are some model runs that keep Tahoe dry for the Tuesday/Tuesday night period so there is the chance we will see no precip. If the more southerly track of the low verifies, parts of Southern California could see up to 4" H2O. The High Sierra south of Mammoth should be under the gun and get a good dump out of this storm. I will say light to moderate snowfall accumulations from Tahoe -> Mammoth, with increasing totals as you head South along the Sierra.
Wednesday looks to be an in between day with cloudy skies and a slight chance of residual precip hanging around. On Thanksgiving day it looks to be a repeat of Tuesday's scenario with a more robust low moving down the CA coast. This system is colder and has the potential to be a significant snow producer for Tahoe. Snow levels with this storm could bottom out in the 4500' realm. Questions remain with the track of this low. Current guidance shows a range of possibilities, from an overland trajectory bringing the low into Northern Nevada, staying just off the coast pumping moisture into cold air resulting in Tahoe's first real dump of the season, or tracking just far enough West so that the Sierra Stiff Arm reemerges and leaves us with light snow. So the amount of overwater trajectory is the main question that still remains to be answered. Currently, HPC 5day H2O totals for Tahoe Sierra Crest are in the 1/2->3/4" range which leaves us with less than one foot of snow out of both storms. I am sure this will change as we get closer to Tuesday. More to come as we get closer to show time.........
24hr Forecast:
Sunny. Highs 43-53. SW winds ~10
48hr Forecast:
Mostly cloudy. Highs 42-52. SE winds 10-15mph
72+hr Forecast:
Cloudy. Chance opf snow/rain. Highs 34-44. Snow level ~6500'.
High Temperatures next 24hrs:
Truckee-low 50's
Tahoe City-low 50's
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8000'-low 40's
Winds next 24hrs: (direction/ mph)
Truckee- SW 10mph
Tahoe City- SW 10mph
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8000'- SW 20mph+
Forecast snowfall next 24hrs:
Truckee- 0
Tahoe City- 0
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8000'- 0
High Temps last 24hrs:
Truckee- low 50's
Tahoe City- low 50's
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8700'- low 40's
Winds last 24hrs: (direction/ mph)
Truckee- SW 10mph
Tahoe City- SW 5-10
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8700'- SW 20mph+ G59mph
Snowfall last 24hrs:
Truckee- zero
Tahoe City- zip
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8000'- zilch
5-14 Day Outlook:
Beyond Thanksgiving weekend, two possible scenarios that have been illustrated in the models these last few days are 1) a Rex Block pattern which is not good for snow lovers or 2) a blocking high pressure ridge in the Gulf of AK with a breakthrough of the Westerlies into CA, which is excellent for snow lovers. Hopefully it's the latter. Also December could start off as a cold one for almost all of the USA. Much below normal temps are forecast from our Canadian side to our Mexican side and everything in between.
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast click here
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast here
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
High pressure is to dominate our weather for the next two days. This will translate into sunny/ partly cloudy skies and temps a few degrees above normal.
Looks like we are finally going to get some weather up in here. Tuesday a cutoff low will pinch off from the main flow and drift down the CA coast. Current guidance shows this low coming ashore South Central/ Southern CA. The bulk of the energy will slide south with the low, so Tahoe will only see light snowfall accumulations on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Snow levels look to be 5500-6000' at their lowest. Just as of note, there are some model runs that keep Tahoe dry for the Tuesday/Tuesday night period so there is the chance we will see no precip. If the more southerly track of the low verifies, parts of Southern California could see up to 4" H2O. The High Sierra south of Mammoth should be under the gun and get a good dump out of this storm. I will say light to moderate snowfall accumulations from Tahoe -> Mammoth, with increasing totals as you head South along the Sierra.
Wednesday looks to be an in between day with cloudy skies and a slight chance of residual precip hanging around. On Thanksgiving day it looks to be a repeat of Tuesday's scenario with a more robust low moving down the CA coast. This system is colder and has the potential to be a significant snow producer for Tahoe. Snow levels with this storm could bottom out in the 4500' realm. Questions remain with the track of this low. Current guidance shows a range of possibilities, from an overland trajectory bringing the low into Northern Nevada, staying just off the coast pumping moisture into cold air resulting in Tahoe's first real dump of the season, or tracking just far enough West so that the Sierra Stiff Arm reemerges and leaves us with light snow. So the amount of overwater trajectory is the main question that still remains to be answered. Currently, HPC 5day H2O totals for Tahoe Sierra Crest are in the 1/2->3/4" range which leaves us with less than one foot of snow out of both storms. I am sure this will change as we get closer to Tuesday. More to come as we get closer to show time.........
24hr Forecast:
Sunny. Highs 43-53. SW winds ~10
48hr Forecast:
Mostly cloudy. Highs 42-52. SE winds 10-15mph
72+hr Forecast:
Cloudy. Chance opf snow/rain. Highs 34-44. Snow level ~6500'.
High Temperatures next 24hrs:
Truckee-low 50's
Tahoe City-low 50's
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8000'-low 40's
Winds next 24hrs: (direction/ mph)
Truckee- SW 10mph
Tahoe City- SW 10mph
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8000'- SW 20mph+
Forecast snowfall next 24hrs:
Truckee- 0
Tahoe City- 0
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8000'- 0
High Temps last 24hrs:
Truckee- low 50's
Tahoe City- low 50's
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8700'- low 40's
Winds last 24hrs: (direction/ mph)
Truckee- SW 10mph
Tahoe City- SW 5-10
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8700'- SW 20mph+ G59mph
Snowfall last 24hrs:
Truckee- zero
Tahoe City- zip
Tahoe Sierra Crest @ 8000'- zilch
5-14 Day Outlook:
Beyond Thanksgiving weekend, two possible scenarios that have been illustrated in the models these last few days are 1) a Rex Block pattern which is not good for snow lovers or 2) a blocking high pressure ridge in the Gulf of AK with a breakthrough of the Westerlies into CA, which is excellent for snow lovers. Hopefully it's the latter. Also December could start off as a cold one for almost all of the USA. Much below normal temps are forecast from our Canadian side to our Mexican side and everything in between.
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast click here
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast here
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Truckee
Tahoe City
Reno
Local Mountain Remote Data
Surface Observations
Wind Chill Chart
NASA/JPL-UCD buoys
FORECAST LINKS:
National Weather Service Reno
WSFO Reno Discussion
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
RADAR:
PAC NW Radar
PAC SW Radar
SATELLITE IMAGERY:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central CA 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES 24hr NA WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precip
SNOWPACK INFORMATION:
Avalanche.org
Sierra Avalanche Center
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
California Department of Water Resources
SNOTEL Data
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analyses
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 11:30 AM
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