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Monday, December 8, 2008
Put on your rally caps!
12/8/08 12 noon
I am not sure if you have heard yet, but the bandwagon has come to Truckee. The news is spreading fast that we will get a solid pattern change late this week and a turn to what could be a few substantial storms for Tahoe. First things first. Today, a shortwave is cruising by to our North which is doing little except adding some clouds to our consistently sunny skies. Don't worry, ridge city returns tomorrow in earnest and will stay around until Friday. So for this week, more of the same. BLAH! Temps are a bit better now for the snowmaking crews, so a bright spot in our sunny picture?
OK, for Friday. Winds increase as the ridge breaks and starts to retrograde West. The ridge won't go as far West as we would like, so our weather will come from the N-NW. What we are looking at is an extremely cold pattern, and right now one without a huge amount of moisture. As this trough develops over the Western USA, cold Canadian air will filter in and keep temps in the 20's for Truckee, much colder at elevation by mid-weekend. The winds will be strong, and as it looks right now we will only see light to moderate amounts of natural snow. Snow-2-water ratios will be high, so it will be the POW! I know we all want the big dump, but hold on because next week the pattern looks to remain active.
So in summary, warm and sunny through Friday and then the pattern change. Cold, windy and snowy (snow showery) this weekend. Definite possibility of consecutive storms next week (after 12/15). The PNA pattern has gone negative and forecasts show it staying negative for 14days+. CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks still show much below normal temperatures and much above normal precipitation for the Sierra. So the systems for next week look stronger and wetter, just no confidence on timing or track as of yet. Chub factor growing!
I am not sure if you have heard yet, but the bandwagon has come to Truckee. The news is spreading fast that we will get a solid pattern change late this week and a turn to what could be a few substantial storms for Tahoe. First things first. Today, a shortwave is cruising by to our North which is doing little except adding some clouds to our consistently sunny skies. Don't worry, ridge city returns tomorrow in earnest and will stay around until Friday. So for this week, more of the same. BLAH! Temps are a bit better now for the snowmaking crews, so a bright spot in our sunny picture?
OK, for Friday. Winds increase as the ridge breaks and starts to retrograde West. The ridge won't go as far West as we would like, so our weather will come from the N-NW. What we are looking at is an extremely cold pattern, and right now one without a huge amount of moisture. As this trough develops over the Western USA, cold Canadian air will filter in and keep temps in the 20's for Truckee, much colder at elevation by mid-weekend. The winds will be strong, and as it looks right now we will only see light to moderate amounts of natural snow. Snow-2-water ratios will be high, so it will be the POW! I know we all want the big dump, but hold on because next week the pattern looks to remain active.
So in summary, warm and sunny through Friday and then the pattern change. Cold, windy and snowy (snow showery) this weekend. Definite possibility of consecutive storms next week (after 12/15). The PNA pattern has gone negative and forecasts show it staying negative for 14days+. CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks still show much below normal temperatures and much above normal precipitation for the Sierra. So the systems for next week look stronger and wetter, just no confidence on timing or track as of yet. Chub factor growing!
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