0 items cart 
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Major Pattern Change, Possible Snow?
9/27/09 10:30am
It is like being back with an old friend. I have been waiting all summer to write about cold fronts, over water trajectory, wind chills and snow. Well, this week I get to do all of those things again. Smile on my face from ear to ear.
Today will be last day of the warm, cloudless, absolutely perfect weather in Tahoe. Starting Monday a strong cold front will make its way out of the GofAK towards the West Coast. Tuesday is the day of front passage when winds will be strong, and temps will come crashing down from what we have been used to. By Wednesday we will be under a cool pool of air, and a North surface flow that will keep daytime highs about 30F colder than today. There is a slight chance of snow here in Tahoe on Tuesday/ Tuesday night as the cold front passes through, but moisture is very limited so a stray flake might be a better way to put it. This strong cold front will be more generous to places like the Wasatch and the Tetons where a good dumping could occur. The mountains of Northern Utah could see their first storm leave them with a foot or two of snow at the highest elevations.
In more detail, Monday will see an increase in clouds and wind. Temps will drop about 10F from today's highs, so mid 70s for Truckee. Winds will increase substantially along the ridges when gusts will top out in the 65-75mph range. In town expect SW winds 15mph gusting to 30mph. It goes without saying that the fire danger will increase proportionally with the winds. Control your flame!
Tuesday clouds abound and winds will continue as the front passes through the region. Chance of snow Tuesday->Tuesday night although it will be light. Snow levels will be about 6grand in Tahoe. Not expecting much than a dusting at the higher elevations. Wednesday morning will start out cold with temps in the low 30s and even upper 20s in the colder valleys. Highs Wednesday will be about 50F at best. Thursday morning lows are forecast to be around 20F in Truckee, so a good hard freeze everywhere by Thursday morning. Temps start to moderate back into the 60s by Thursday and Friday. Summer will be officially over today, fall starts tomorrow, and winter could arrive later next week.
Looking towards next weekend, we could possibly be lining up for our first snow of the season. Another cold front from the GofAK could arrive Saturday, this one with better over water trajectory. Looking at the GFS runs from last night and this morning, low pressure could linger from 10/4-6. I'll keep my eye on that one.
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
It is like being back with an old friend. I have been waiting all summer to write about cold fronts, over water trajectory, wind chills and snow. Well, this week I get to do all of those things again. Smile on my face from ear to ear.
Today will be last day of the warm, cloudless, absolutely perfect weather in Tahoe. Starting Monday a strong cold front will make its way out of the GofAK towards the West Coast. Tuesday is the day of front passage when winds will be strong, and temps will come crashing down from what we have been used to. By Wednesday we will be under a cool pool of air, and a North surface flow that will keep daytime highs about 30F colder than today. There is a slight chance of snow here in Tahoe on Tuesday/ Tuesday night as the cold front passes through, but moisture is very limited so a stray flake might be a better way to put it. This strong cold front will be more generous to places like the Wasatch and the Tetons where a good dumping could occur. The mountains of Northern Utah could see their first storm leave them with a foot or two of snow at the highest elevations.
In more detail, Monday will see an increase in clouds and wind. Temps will drop about 10F from today's highs, so mid 70s for Truckee. Winds will increase substantially along the ridges when gusts will top out in the 65-75mph range. In town expect SW winds 15mph gusting to 30mph. It goes without saying that the fire danger will increase proportionally with the winds. Control your flame!
Tuesday clouds abound and winds will continue as the front passes through the region. Chance of snow Tuesday->Tuesday night although it will be light. Snow levels will be about 6grand in Tahoe. Not expecting much than a dusting at the higher elevations. Wednesday morning will start out cold with temps in the low 30s and even upper 20s in the colder valleys. Highs Wednesday will be about 50F at best. Thursday morning lows are forecast to be around 20F in Truckee, so a good hard freeze everywhere by Thursday morning. Temps start to moderate back into the 60s by Thursday and Friday. Summer will be officially over today, fall starts tomorrow, and winter could arrive later next week.
Looking towards next weekend, we could possibly be lining up for our first snow of the season. Another cold front from the GofAK could arrive Saturday, this one with better over water trajectory. Looking at the GFS runs from last night and this morning, low pressure could linger from 10/4-6. I'll keep my eye on that one.
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 10:30 AM
Links to this post:
<< Home
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]
