0 items cart 
Sunday, October 11, 2009
A Good Thumping
10/11/09 7:47am
Forecast on track for a major storm Tuesday->Wednesday. Confidence is high in regards to a break through of the westerlies which will allow for the remnants of Typhoon Melor to phase with an upper low retrograding out of Canada in response to high pressure building over AK. This all provides for a firehose of moisture into CA.
What this means for Tahoe is winds and clouds will increase on Monday. Precip should start to bank up against the Sierra later in the day Monday. Tuesday will feature heavy rains, snow above 8500' and howling winds. Wind gusts have the potential to reach 120-140mph along the Sierra Crest. HPC 5 day precip forecast shows storm totals of 6.8" just West of the Northern Sierra Crest and 6.6" just West of the Central Sierra Crest. The Tahoe Basin could receive 2-3" of rainfall. The higher terrain, above 9000' from South Lake Tahoe to Mammoth could see heavy snows, upwards of 60" of snow by Thursday. Of course, I am stating that this sort of snowfall accumulation will be above 10,000' where it should be snow pretty much for the duration of the event. We will have to see if that sort of major accumulation pans out, but it is possible.
Expect temps around lake level and in Truckee to top out in the low to mid 50s on Tuesday/ Wednesday while high temps around 8000' in the mid 30s.
There is a chance of snow levels dropping to ~7000-7500' late in the event, so a few inches of snow at pass level is in the cards.
More to come as we get closer to show time.........
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
Forecast on track for a major storm Tuesday->Wednesday. Confidence is high in regards to a break through of the westerlies which will allow for the remnants of Typhoon Melor to phase with an upper low retrograding out of Canada in response to high pressure building over AK. This all provides for a firehose of moisture into CA.
What this means for Tahoe is winds and clouds will increase on Monday. Precip should start to bank up against the Sierra later in the day Monday. Tuesday will feature heavy rains, snow above 8500' and howling winds. Wind gusts have the potential to reach 120-140mph along the Sierra Crest. HPC 5 day precip forecast shows storm totals of 6.8" just West of the Northern Sierra Crest and 6.6" just West of the Central Sierra Crest. The Tahoe Basin could receive 2-3" of rainfall. The higher terrain, above 9000' from South Lake Tahoe to Mammoth could see heavy snows, upwards of 60" of snow by Thursday. Of course, I am stating that this sort of snowfall accumulation will be above 10,000' where it should be snow pretty much for the duration of the event. We will have to see if that sort of major accumulation pans out, but it is possible.
Expect temps around lake level and in Truckee to top out in the low to mid 50s on Tuesday/ Wednesday while high temps around 8000' in the mid 30s.
There is a chance of snow levels dropping to ~7000-7500' late in the event, so a few inches of snow at pass level is in the cards.
More to come as we get closer to show time.........
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 7:47 AM
Links to this post:
<< Home
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]
