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Saturday, October 24, 2009
Rally Caps On! Bet On The Wildcard
10/24/09 8:20am
Piggy backing on my post from yesterday, it seems that the wildcard might have its rally cap on. I mentioned the 10/22 18z & 10/23 12z runs were outliers in showing a follow up cold front later next week that was cold and moist. Yesterday even the NWS Reno guys called these model runs "slop." Well, today, all GFS runs have come around for what could become a progressive pattern for CA. Today's 00z run is the most bullish with a series of storms coming to CA through the next 14days, starting the 29th/30th. We are still a few days out, but now that NWS Reno has started to adjust their long term forecast, and the models coming into somewhat better agreement, we will have to wait and see what happens. It could be the beginning.
The forecast for this weekend is still warm, sunny/ partly cloudy with some afternoon breezes. Expect above normal temps through Monday. On Tuesday the inside slider dropping in from the PacNW will drop temps below normal (down right chilly). Limited moisture Monday night and Tuesday will provide snow showers to the region. Winds will be persistent through the early half of the week.
Past Wednesday confidence is low but gaining in a possible series of colder, moist storms for the Sierra. Stay tuned............
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
Piggy backing on my post from yesterday, it seems that the wildcard might have its rally cap on. I mentioned the 10/22 18z & 10/23 12z runs were outliers in showing a follow up cold front later next week that was cold and moist. Yesterday even the NWS Reno guys called these model runs "slop." Well, today, all GFS runs have come around for what could become a progressive pattern for CA. Today's 00z run is the most bullish with a series of storms coming to CA through the next 14days, starting the 29th/30th. We are still a few days out, but now that NWS Reno has started to adjust their long term forecast, and the models coming into somewhat better agreement, we will have to wait and see what happens. It could be the beginning.
The forecast for this weekend is still warm, sunny/ partly cloudy with some afternoon breezes. Expect above normal temps through Monday. On Tuesday the inside slider dropping in from the PacNW will drop temps below normal (down right chilly). Limited moisture Monday night and Tuesday will provide snow showers to the region. Winds will be persistent through the early half of the week.
Past Wednesday confidence is low but gaining in a possible series of colder, moist storms for the Sierra. Stay tuned............
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 8:20 AM
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