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Friday, October 9, 2009
Significant Precipitation Event Next Week
10/9/09 9:30am
A major pattern change and the Sierra's first major precipitation event are on the horizon. Before this happens, we will experience a beautiful mid-fall weekend with temps at their seasonal normals and cloudless skies. The aspen trees are all sorts of colors right now so it's a great time to get out and see them.
Looking at next week......the remnants of Typhoon Melor will phase with a trans-Pacific jet stream that will stretch straight from China to San Francisco, pretty much in a straight line the whole way, and bring ridiculous amounts of moisture into the Sierra Nevada. Models have some around into high confidence of this scenario playing out. Of note, when the jet stream straightens like this over the Pacific, CA usually sees the largest of precipitation events.
The forecast as of this morning......starting Monday afternoon precip will start to bank up against the Western Slope of the Sierra and by evening will start to spill over into the Tahoe Basin. Snow levels will initially be as low as 7500', but will rise above 8000' and possibly much higher as the deep tropical moisture streams onshore. Current precipitation projections from the HPC show up to 5.6" as of Wednesday morning, and 6-10" overall on the West side of the Crest by the end of the event. The Tahoe Basin could possibly receive upwards of 2-3" of rain by Wednesday night. Temps will stay mild through the event, hence the high snow levels. Winds will be heavy, gusting to 100mph on the ridges but surface winds will be limited due to the heavy precipitation.
The highest elevations of the Tahoe region, Mt. Rose, Freel and Round Top, as well as terrain generally above 9000' down the Sierra towards Mammoth will receive a few feet of heavy wet slop, the so called "Sierra Cement". The perfect base builder. More to come as we get closer.
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
A major pattern change and the Sierra's first major precipitation event are on the horizon. Before this happens, we will experience a beautiful mid-fall weekend with temps at their seasonal normals and cloudless skies. The aspen trees are all sorts of colors right now so it's a great time to get out and see them.
Looking at next week......the remnants of Typhoon Melor will phase with a trans-Pacific jet stream that will stretch straight from China to San Francisco, pretty much in a straight line the whole way, and bring ridiculous amounts of moisture into the Sierra Nevada. Models have some around into high confidence of this scenario playing out. Of note, when the jet stream straightens like this over the Pacific, CA usually sees the largest of precipitation events.
The forecast as of this morning......starting Monday afternoon precip will start to bank up against the Western Slope of the Sierra and by evening will start to spill over into the Tahoe Basin. Snow levels will initially be as low as 7500', but will rise above 8000' and possibly much higher as the deep tropical moisture streams onshore. Current precipitation projections from the HPC show up to 5.6" as of Wednesday morning, and 6-10" overall on the West side of the Crest by the end of the event. The Tahoe Basin could possibly receive upwards of 2-3" of rain by Wednesday night. Temps will stay mild through the event, hence the high snow levels. Winds will be heavy, gusting to 100mph on the ridges but surface winds will be limited due to the heavy precipitation.
The highest elevations of the Tahoe region, Mt. Rose, Freel and Round Top, as well as terrain generally above 9000' down the Sierra towards Mammoth will receive a few feet of heavy wet slop, the so called "Sierra Cement". The perfect base builder. More to come as we get closer.
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 9:30 AM
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