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Friday, October 23, 2009
Warm Weekend Then Cold Blast
10/23/09 10am
Pretty spectacular weekend setting up for Tahoe. High pressure will dominate producing a slight N-NE surface gradient which will keep a slight breeze going. High temps in the 60s, a few high clouds but mostly sunny. Morning lows not even that cold, just below freezing. With little snow cover and aspen trees showing their last flash of color it is a great time for a hike or bike. Mountain biking is all time still, as the lower sun angle has yet to dry out the trails from last/ this weeks' rain and snow. Get out and enjoy because things are going to change Monday.
A lot of Pacific energy is poised to slam into BC and the PacNW over the next few days. Tahoe will see the effects of the tail end of the cold front, but those effect will be felt for sure. We won't see much in the way of precip, but we will get wind and much colder temps than we have had. Monday winds will increase from the West as a cold front drops down the West Coast. By Tuesday low pressure will set up over the Great Basin. Monday night and Tuesday Tahoe will most likely see a few snow showers, but with no significant moisture for us, accumulations will be non-existent to light. Behind the cold front temps will take a digger. Highs in the 60s this weekend will drop to the 50s on Monday and then into the low 40s on Tuesday/ Wednesday. At 8k highs in the 50s this weekend will top out in the low/mid 30s by Wednesday. It will stay breezy at all elevations Monday/ Tuesday/ Wednesday. The cold temps will allow for a shot at snowmaking for a lot of local resorts. If you are looking for the real stuff, head East to UT/WY/CO. Those regions will see good dumps of the frozen white. Of note, morning lows Wed/ Thurs will be in the low 20s & teens in Truckee.
Past Wednesday it looks as if the PNA will turn positive meaning more sun and warm temps for the Sierra. Although yesterday's 18z and today's 12z GFS show a strong cold front and lots of moisture headed our direction on/around 10/30. The problem with this fantasy scenario is that these two model runs are considered outliers. Let's go wildcard! The chances of warm calm weather far outweigh the possibility of a storm to wind out Oct and usher in Nov.
I'll keep my eyes on it.
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
Pretty spectacular weekend setting up for Tahoe. High pressure will dominate producing a slight N-NE surface gradient which will keep a slight breeze going. High temps in the 60s, a few high clouds but mostly sunny. Morning lows not even that cold, just below freezing. With little snow cover and aspen trees showing their last flash of color it is a great time for a hike or bike. Mountain biking is all time still, as the lower sun angle has yet to dry out the trails from last/ this weeks' rain and snow. Get out and enjoy because things are going to change Monday.
A lot of Pacific energy is poised to slam into BC and the PacNW over the next few days. Tahoe will see the effects of the tail end of the cold front, but those effect will be felt for sure. We won't see much in the way of precip, but we will get wind and much colder temps than we have had. Monday winds will increase from the West as a cold front drops down the West Coast. By Tuesday low pressure will set up over the Great Basin. Monday night and Tuesday Tahoe will most likely see a few snow showers, but with no significant moisture for us, accumulations will be non-existent to light. Behind the cold front temps will take a digger. Highs in the 60s this weekend will drop to the 50s on Monday and then into the low 40s on Tuesday/ Wednesday. At 8k highs in the 50s this weekend will top out in the low/mid 30s by Wednesday. It will stay breezy at all elevations Monday/ Tuesday/ Wednesday. The cold temps will allow for a shot at snowmaking for a lot of local resorts. If you are looking for the real stuff, head East to UT/WY/CO. Those regions will see good dumps of the frozen white. Of note, morning lows Wed/ Thurs will be in the low 20s & teens in Truckee.
Past Wednesday it looks as if the PNA will turn positive meaning more sun and warm temps for the Sierra. Although yesterday's 18z and today's 12z GFS show a strong cold front and lots of moisture headed our direction on/around 10/30. The problem with this fantasy scenario is that these two model runs are considered outliers. Let's go wildcard! The chances of warm calm weather far outweigh the possibility of a storm to wind out Oct and usher in Nov.
I'll keep my eyes on it.
PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 10:00 AM
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