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Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Fizzle
11/4/09 10:53am
Today will be much like yesterday, plus a bit more of a breeze and temps a few degrees cooler.
Looking at the potential storms to effect Tahoe over the next few days, not good news coming from the models. As for Thursday's system, looking more like a classic "more blow than snow" scenario. Winds will increase later Wednesday and especially Thursday and will pretty much stay breezy through the weekend. The ridges of course will see the highest winds, around 75mph by Thursday night, backing down into the 50mph range by Friday and into the weekend. Notice I haven't mentioned precip/ snow yet. Well there is a reason for that. Don't get excited because you will only be let down. Current HPC QPF for the Tahoe Sierra Crest is maybe .25". So for Thursday night, a splitting system, the bulk of the energy is going to the PacNW and the other shot going towards Baja, we will get little moisture, wimpy dynamics and all around a weak system. Snow levels for Thursday night-> Friday system look to stay ~7500' +/-. Nothing substantial regardless. Friday will feature the chance for showers and wind & clouds.
Saturday's system I mentioned in the last post looks now to be all but non-existent. Models have trended all energy North of Tahoe leaving us with a few showers at best and warmer temps. Things could revert back to how we saw it yesterday, but not to sure about that. There is a large amount of uncertainty regarding this weekend's precip chances. Best chance for some measurable precip might be next Tuesday? With the massive amount of uncertainty with the forecast, I cannot settle on a definite forecast moving forward. The main take away is cooler, unsettled weather with a chance of showers/ snow at higher elevations.
Temps will slowly drop over the next few days, but not as cold as we thought yesterday. Expect temps to slide through the 50s into the 40s in Truckee by Saturday, and mid 30s @ 8k.
More later. Mammoth opens again this weekend. Boreal, Mt. Rose, Snow Summit and Bear in SoCal have some man made for your sliding action.
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
Today will be much like yesterday, plus a bit more of a breeze and temps a few degrees cooler.
Looking at the potential storms to effect Tahoe over the next few days, not good news coming from the models. As for Thursday's system, looking more like a classic "more blow than snow" scenario. Winds will increase later Wednesday and especially Thursday and will pretty much stay breezy through the weekend. The ridges of course will see the highest winds, around 75mph by Thursday night, backing down into the 50mph range by Friday and into the weekend. Notice I haven't mentioned precip/ snow yet. Well there is a reason for that. Don't get excited because you will only be let down. Current HPC QPF for the Tahoe Sierra Crest is maybe .25". So for Thursday night, a splitting system, the bulk of the energy is going to the PacNW and the other shot going towards Baja, we will get little moisture, wimpy dynamics and all around a weak system. Snow levels for Thursday night-> Friday system look to stay ~7500' +/-. Nothing substantial regardless. Friday will feature the chance for showers and wind & clouds.
Saturday's system I mentioned in the last post looks now to be all but non-existent. Models have trended all energy North of Tahoe leaving us with a few showers at best and warmer temps. Things could revert back to how we saw it yesterday, but not to sure about that. There is a large amount of uncertainty regarding this weekend's precip chances. Best chance for some measurable precip might be next Tuesday? With the massive amount of uncertainty with the forecast, I cannot settle on a definite forecast moving forward. The main take away is cooler, unsettled weather with a chance of showers/ snow at higher elevations.
Temps will slowly drop over the next few days, but not as cold as we thought yesterday. Expect temps to slide through the 50s into the 40s in Truckee by Saturday, and mid 30s @ 8k.
More later. Mammoth opens again this weekend. Boreal, Mt. Rose, Snow Summit and Bear in SoCal have some man made for your sliding action.
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 10:52 AM
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