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Monday, November 9, 2009
My ears hurt
11/9/09 5:36pm
The hype is deafening. I am not going to make any calls on the precip chances for later in the week right now. I will talk about certainties. What is certain is that it will get windy, it will get colder and we will see snowflakes in Tahoe.
The Uncertainties.......
The model solutions for later this week hold little to no confidence. The track of the GoAK low is not known, and could take a quick, tight path close to the coast which will give us *light* snow on Wednesday night/ Thursday. The low could also take a slower, more seaworthy track (possibly closing off) which would allow to more moisture to become entrained in the system, and push the time frame back to more of a Thursday time frame. By all means, this is what we want. We want slow and out to sea. If the low takes the right trajectory, we could see pretty decent snow accumulations along the Tahoe Sierra Crest, although at this point I doubt that this one storm will be the season starter. Alas, some models show another storm possibly Friday night/ Saturday, and a series of storms later next week.
We all need to keep our excitement in check here. It is going to happen, just won't be able to turn it around in one storm. Temps will be cold, so snowmaking will happen. I am as excited as anyone (chub factor 4 out of 5). We need a bit more time to make sure that the tease factor is limited and we can see this coming stormy period for what it is, not what we want it to be.
Update tomorrow......
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
The hype is deafening. I am not going to make any calls on the precip chances for later in the week right now. I will talk about certainties. What is certain is that it will get windy, it will get colder and we will see snowflakes in Tahoe.
The Uncertainties.......
The model solutions for later this week hold little to no confidence. The track of the GoAK low is not known, and could take a quick, tight path close to the coast which will give us *light* snow on Wednesday night/ Thursday. The low could also take a slower, more seaworthy track (possibly closing off) which would allow to more moisture to become entrained in the system, and push the time frame back to more of a Thursday time frame. By all means, this is what we want. We want slow and out to sea. If the low takes the right trajectory, we could see pretty decent snow accumulations along the Tahoe Sierra Crest, although at this point I doubt that this one storm will be the season starter. Alas, some models show another storm possibly Friday night/ Saturday, and a series of storms later next week.
We all need to keep our excitement in check here. It is going to happen, just won't be able to turn it around in one storm. Temps will be cold, so snowmaking will happen. I am as excited as anyone (chub factor 4 out of 5). We need a bit more time to make sure that the tease factor is limited and we can see this coming stormy period for what it is, not what we want it to be.
Update tomorrow......
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 5:36 PM
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