0 items cart 
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Sitting, Waiting....
11/8/09 8:01am
Sitting and waiting here on a chilly Sunday morning. Temps bottomed out at 15F here in East Truckee this morning with a cool frost on all the trees, roofs, grass etc. The low sun angle of the early morning makes it look like winter. The only problem is that today should see a high temps of 50F, which is not so winter like.
The Teaser
Today's look at the forecast is pretty much the same teaser that we have had for a few weeks now. If the forecast from last Sunday played out for this past week, we might be squeaking out a few light footed turns in the backcountry or sliding some rails at Boreal. Problem is the jet stayed North and gave OR and WA a good shot of moisture. Mt Baker in WA has received over 2' in 3 days, Mt Bachelor in OR has received about a foot, and Mt Hood is ready to open this week with a settled snow dept of 30" @ mid mountain.
Back to Tahoe. If I were to base this week's forecast off today's 06zGFS, we would be gearing up. This model run shows a good shot of precip starting Wednesday night as a low drops down from the GoAK, with a reinforcing shot both Friday and Saturday. If this holds true, we could be in business. But this run is an outlier, as all the other models reach no consensus and are completely out of sync with each other. So basically, the forecast lacks confidence outside of 48hrs.
For Sunday-> Tuesday, high temps in the upper 40s/ low 50s in Truckee and upper 30s @8k. We will see some weak energy brush us by to the North again on Monday night, so a slight chance for a shower exists Monday night/ Tuesday morning. Another narrow band of moisture could produce a shower on Wednesday. Nighttime lows should be in the 20s in Truckee.
Looking beyond Thursday is any one's bet. Some models show more of the same, with the jet staying North into the PacNW. If the 06z becomes the big winner, late this week/ next weekend could be our first large snow producer. Regardless, it looks as if temps will drop a bit later this week so snow making efforts will be underway. Farther down the line, long term forecasters still foresee a large scale pattern shift due to the MJO and its effects on GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) which should amplify the pattern, with high pressure retrograding out to 150W and the storm door to open like the red carpet for the Oscars. The timing on this would be around 11/18 +/-. Stay tuned......
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
Sitting and waiting here on a chilly Sunday morning. Temps bottomed out at 15F here in East Truckee this morning with a cool frost on all the trees, roofs, grass etc. The low sun angle of the early morning makes it look like winter. The only problem is that today should see a high temps of 50F, which is not so winter like.
The Teaser
Today's look at the forecast is pretty much the same teaser that we have had for a few weeks now. If the forecast from last Sunday played out for this past week, we might be squeaking out a few light footed turns in the backcountry or sliding some rails at Boreal. Problem is the jet stayed North and gave OR and WA a good shot of moisture. Mt Baker in WA has received over 2' in 3 days, Mt Bachelor in OR has received about a foot, and Mt Hood is ready to open this week with a settled snow dept of 30" @ mid mountain.
Back to Tahoe. If I were to base this week's forecast off today's 06zGFS, we would be gearing up. This model run shows a good shot of precip starting Wednesday night as a low drops down from the GoAK, with a reinforcing shot both Friday and Saturday. If this holds true, we could be in business. But this run is an outlier, as all the other models reach no consensus and are completely out of sync with each other. So basically, the forecast lacks confidence outside of 48hrs.
For Sunday-> Tuesday, high temps in the upper 40s/ low 50s in Truckee and upper 30s @8k. We will see some weak energy brush us by to the North again on Monday night, so a slight chance for a shower exists Monday night/ Tuesday morning. Another narrow band of moisture could produce a shower on Wednesday. Nighttime lows should be in the 20s in Truckee.
Looking beyond Thursday is any one's bet. Some models show more of the same, with the jet staying North into the PacNW. If the 06z becomes the big winner, late this week/ next weekend could be our first large snow producer. Regardless, it looks as if temps will drop a bit later this week so snow making efforts will be underway. Farther down the line, long term forecasters still foresee a large scale pattern shift due to the MJO and its effects on GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) which should amplify the pattern, with high pressure retrograding out to 150W and the storm door to open like the red carpet for the Oscars. The timing on this would be around 11/18 +/-. Stay tuned......
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
// posted by PortersWeatherGuy @ 8:01 AM
Links to this post:
<< Home
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]
