Thursday, November 19, 2009
Speed is a factor
11/19/09 7:52 am Update nooner
Update to WINTER STORM WARNING issued for Lake Tahoe Basin. 1-10pm Friday
Update snowfall totals: 8-16" along the Western Crest of the Tahoe Basin, 3-8" @ lake level.
Decent winter storm heading for Tahoe, but the limiting factor is not available moisture but the speed at which the system will plow through the Sierra.
Forecast this morning varies still from yesterday in the way of snowfall totals. NWS Sacto is calling 1-2' above 7000'. NWS Reno is calling for 15" above 7000' and 8" on the West Shore of Lake Tahoe with lesser amounts East of the crest. I believe Sacto is going bigger because looking at the HPC H2O forecast there is a 1.95" bullseye NW of Tahoe and a 1.20" bullseye SW of Tahoe. The Sacto forecast includes the region under the higher precipitation totals when Reno does not. The more *local* precip forecast shows .84" for Truckee at 6200', .33" for Mt Rose at 7200' and 1.21" for Blue Canyon at 5200'. I think totals around 6'+/- for Truckee/ Tahoe City seems reasonable and 1-1.5' above 7000' for the TSC is also reasonable. With the lack of abundant moisture these snowfall totals should be met because of the cold air involved with the system. Temps above 7000' will be in the 20s so 15:1 or better snow2water ratios are possible. This is great news for deeper snow, but if temps were warmer, the good old Sierra Cement would create a better base for skiing/ riding. 15" of fresh pow on rocks doesn't sound too good for cruising in the backcountry or off piste. 15" of blower on a groomer of man made will be sweet though. Precip should shut off in the wee hours of Saturday with some lingering snow showers along the crest early in the day.
Now for the winds. This storm will pack some serious winds. On Friday, S winds will pick up early in the day, switching SW by afternoon to 25-40 mph, gusting to 60mph in town with ridge winds reaching 125 mph during the brunt of the storm.
Right now it looks as if the Saturday night-> Sunday system will stay North giving us only some light snow showers at best.
Enjoy the storm!
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
Update to WINTER STORM WARNING issued for Lake Tahoe Basin. 1-10pm Friday
Update snowfall totals: 8-16" along the Western Crest of the Tahoe Basin, 3-8" @ lake level.
Decent winter storm heading for Tahoe, but the limiting factor is not available moisture but the speed at which the system will plow through the Sierra.
Forecast this morning varies still from yesterday in the way of snowfall totals. NWS Sacto is calling 1-2' above 7000'. NWS Reno is calling for 15" above 7000' and 8" on the West Shore of Lake Tahoe with lesser amounts East of the crest. I believe Sacto is going bigger because looking at the HPC H2O forecast there is a 1.95" bullseye NW of Tahoe and a 1.20" bullseye SW of Tahoe. The Sacto forecast includes the region under the higher precipitation totals when Reno does not. The more *local* precip forecast shows .84" for Truckee at 6200', .33" for Mt Rose at 7200' and 1.21" for Blue Canyon at 5200'. I think totals around 6'+/- for Truckee/ Tahoe City seems reasonable and 1-1.5' above 7000' for the TSC is also reasonable. With the lack of abundant moisture these snowfall totals should be met because of the cold air involved with the system. Temps above 7000' will be in the 20s so 15:1 or better snow2water ratios are possible. This is great news for deeper snow, but if temps were warmer, the good old Sierra Cement would create a better base for skiing/ riding. 15" of fresh pow on rocks doesn't sound too good for cruising in the backcountry or off piste. 15" of blower on a groomer of man made will be sweet though. Precip should shut off in the wee hours of Saturday with some lingering snow showers along the crest early in the day.
Now for the winds. This storm will pack some serious winds. On Friday, S winds will pick up early in the day, switching SW by afternoon to 25-40 mph, gusting to 60mph in town with ridge winds reaching 125 mph during the brunt of the storm.
Right now it looks as if the Saturday night-> Sunday system will stay North giving us only some light snow showers at best.
Enjoy the storm!
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
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