Friday, February 19, 2010
Foot the phone book
Lake Tahoe Area Weather and Snowpack Information
2/19/10 9:14pm
The week of dry is coming to an end tonight. Bottom line is the Sierra will receive beneficial snows over the next week. Tonight and Sunday are just a primer as to what will go down next week. OK, potentially go down next week. I'll just start with the best case scenario. Today's 12Z GFS shows an almost continuous precip event starting Monday night/ Tuesday and lasting through the following Sunday/ Monday. All the runs of the GFS are holding strong to this theory. There looks to be some periods of higher snow levels, maybe 7Gs by next Thursday before crashing behind a strong cold front. Unfortunately all forecasting models are not in agreement. We will have to see how this all pans out. PNA is trending negative but be mindful that it also is forecast to go abruptly positive as we march into March.
So this weekend- light precip entering the region tonight from the N-NW as low pressure drives South into SoCal and a shortwave is dropping South out of OR/ID/NW-NV. The system with the moisture is really too far South to give us any real accumulations. Sunday looks to be a better bet as another system makes its way East off the Pacific. Better moisture and dynamics associated with this one as Tahoe could see 4-6" along the Western ridges of the basin. Snow levels should stay @ 5000' this weekend before rising on Tuesday. Tuesday is another bright spot on the horizon as another shortwave rounds the base of the blocking high in the GofAK/ BC coast bringing a potential 1-1.5" of water our way. Right now the HPC 5day H2O forecast shows ~2" along the Tahoe Sierra Crest, aka. the TSC. Making a call of 18-24" of fresh snow along the TSC by Tuesday night is reasonable. Looking beyond Tuesday, next Friday could be a whomper as the hits line up.
Of note, we do have El Nino driving the bus this winter and with the Nino usually comes warmer temps with precip. The reason I mention this is because the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show above average precip as well as above average temps.
So much uncertainty. Looks promising though.
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
2/19/10 9:14pm
The week of dry is coming to an end tonight. Bottom line is the Sierra will receive beneficial snows over the next week. Tonight and Sunday are just a primer as to what will go down next week. OK, potentially go down next week. I'll just start with the best case scenario. Today's 12Z GFS shows an almost continuous precip event starting Monday night/ Tuesday and lasting through the following Sunday/ Monday. All the runs of the GFS are holding strong to this theory. There looks to be some periods of higher snow levels, maybe 7Gs by next Thursday before crashing behind a strong cold front. Unfortunately all forecasting models are not in agreement. We will have to see how this all pans out. PNA is trending negative but be mindful that it also is forecast to go abruptly positive as we march into March.
So this weekend- light precip entering the region tonight from the N-NW as low pressure drives South into SoCal and a shortwave is dropping South out of OR/ID/NW-NV. The system with the moisture is really too far South to give us any real accumulations. Sunday looks to be a better bet as another system makes its way East off the Pacific. Better moisture and dynamics associated with this one as Tahoe could see 4-6" along the Western ridges of the basin. Snow levels should stay @ 5000' this weekend before rising on Tuesday. Tuesday is another bright spot on the horizon as another shortwave rounds the base of the blocking high in the GofAK/ BC coast bringing a potential 1-1.5" of water our way. Right now the HPC 5day H2O forecast shows ~2" along the Tahoe Sierra Crest, aka. the TSC. Making a call of 18-24" of fresh snow along the TSC by Tuesday night is reasonable. Looking beyond Tuesday, next Friday could be a whomper as the hits line up.
Of note, we do have El Nino driving the bus this winter and with the Nino usually comes warmer temps with precip. The reason I mention this is because the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show above average precip as well as above average temps.
So much uncertainty. Looks promising though.
-PWG
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current NWS Lake Tahoe Forecast
Lake Tahoe Backcountry Forecast
Lake Tahoe Recreational Forecast
Wind Chill Chart
Forecast Links:
National Weather Service Reno
National Weather Service Sacramento
NWS Reno Discussion
NWS Sacramento Discussion
Radar:
Intellicast Reno
Intellicast San Francisco
PacNW
PacSW
Satellite Imagery:
4km IR Loop
16km IR Loop
Central California 1km Visible
GOES-W 12hr WV
GOES NA 24hr WV
Precipitable Water Loop
Past Week's Estimated Precipitation Totals
Forecasting Tools:
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Day 4-5 QPF
5 Day Total QPF
California Nevada River Forecast Center
300mb Jetstream Loop
NCEP & HPC Loops Page
Pennsylvania State University Electronic Map Wall
CPC 6-10 Day Outlook
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook
Remote Data:
NWS Reno Local Mountain Remote Data
NWS Surface Observations
Tahoe City
NASA/JPL-UCD Buoys
Truckee Airport
Central Sierra Snow Lab
Sugar Bowl
Squaw Valley GC
Ward Creek
Rubicon
Sonora Pass
Virginia Lakes
Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge
Mammoth Mountain Summit
Reno Airport
Snow Data:
Sierra Avalanche Center
Sierra Avalanche Center Snowpit Profiles and Field Observations
Snowpit Profile Key
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
Avalanche.org
California Department of Water Resources
California Snotel Sites
Snotel Narrative
NOAA NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information
NWS Snowpack Analysis
Donner Summit Snowfall History
Brought to you by http://www.porterstahoe.com/
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